Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
